There is going to be a Presidential election approximately three months from now. It is a statement on the state of Western democracy that the best that the Republican Party can do is Donald Trump and the best that the Democratic Party can do is Joe Biden. Whatever you think about Donald Trump’s substance, his style is borderline indefensible. Reasonable people look at him and feel visceral hatred. At the same time, it’s impossible to listen to Joe Biden speak, and overlook the obvious fact that he simply doesn’t have the mental acuity to lead a country with a vast nuclear arsenal.
That made Biden’s VP pick that much more important. When I first heard that it was Kalama Harris, I wondered if he really was interested in winning the election. The selection was that bad. Yes, she ticks the two identity politics boxes of gender and race, and this is very important to the Democratic base. But the upcoming election won’t be won or lost based on the hard-core on either side of the political divide. This election, like most recent ones, will ride on voter turnout, the electoral college map, and the state of the economy in the month before votes are cast.
However, there is one significant fact about Kamala Harris that ultimately explained why she was selected when there were several better candidates. Kamala Harris was Hilary Clinton’s pick, which means that she was the Democratic Establishment candidate. That Establishment did everything in its power in 2016 to rig the nomination against Bernie Sanders. That Establishment paid lip-service to the importance of a “minority” candidate and two talented and articulate candidates emerged. However, the minority groups that Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard belonged to didn’t cut the politically correct muster and the party rallied around Joe Biden to stop Bernie Sanders.
This is how I expect that the 2020 election will play out. I am writing this column on August 17th. I believe that Biden will find a way to weasel out of the Presidential debates. Maybe there’s one, but the Democrats will find Trump’s behaviour so egregious that he won’t “deserve” a second or third. A media that despises Trump will make any excuses on Biden’s behalf. Trump has been his own worst enemy with multiple petty tweets, and picking fights with those who should be his allies. All Biden needs to do is keep his head low, issue milquetoast statements, and he’ll be the next President of the United States.
Then once elected, the same media that ran cover for Biden, will miraculously and suddenly notice that he’s mentally not there. There will be pressure that he simply can’t resist to step down for health reasons and sometime late in 2021 or 2022 he will voluntarily resign. Then he will be lionized, compared to George Washington for ceding power voluntarily, and then Kamala Harris, the Democratic Establishment’s number one choice, will assume the role that they wanted her to have all along.